Thank you John,I stand with you that digital modes are the future, if there is one for HF radio. Even though I am a nearly 20 year member of the MRHS transmitter crew, who are CW forever types, I'm firmly of the opinion that non-CW digital modes need to be included and further expanded.
A couple weeks ago, I was at the KPH transmitter site doing Night of Nights. It was 3 days of work to make it happen. KPH was the only station on the air again this year. Well, we ran one transmitter as KFS, but it was transmitting from the same building as KPH. Anyway, in the past, there were other maritime stations on the air including the US Coast Guard. Over the years, fewer and fewer coast stations participate, or even exist. QSLs to KPH have dwindled to a trickle. And for the 4th year in a row, we were the only station on the air.
Ham radio is seeing a slight increase in interest at the same time it continues to shrink. The MFJ thing is an example. DX Engineering (owned by the same outfit as Summit Racing) made an offer, and it was not accepted. My friend Doug Smith (SK) worked for a medium size company that produced HF autotuner boards that were repackaged by ham manufacturers and military alike. He watched that company dwindle down from thousands of tuners per year to hundreds, and eventually none. They sold their tooling and design and parts inventory to a company out of China who ship only a couple hundred a year, and still do today, but less than a hundred per year now post-covid.
Every year, I assist Rich Harrington in teaching the one day "ham cram" licensing class at the ARRL convention in October. 20 years ago, we would have to break up the registrants into 2 or more separate classes to keep the class size manageable (like under 40 students). Today, if we get 20 students, that's a pretty good size class.
So, I do see the ham radio hobby shrinking. Now, most (if not all) Part 22 enthusiasts are, or come from the ham hobby. So let's discuss that.
Back in ham's heyday, people would often select homes based on the ability to operate from there. Noise levels were measured on portable equipment, HOA antenna restrictions would be a deal-breaker, etc. Today, the HF noise floor is so high in most urban areas that S-9 or higher continuous noise is "normal".
At my carefully chosen hilltop QTH, the noise floor remains at zero or near zero across the HF spectrum. That is partly because I have enough property that neighbors with noisy switching supplies or solar inverters are not an issue, and partly because I have diligently kept my own house in order for not creating RF noise. No switching supplies or wifi boxes, etc. For my sacrifices, I am rewarded with a zero noise floor. That means, as I tune around the HF bands, I can hear just about anything.
However, lately I stumble across a couple hams who are talking about something interesting and monitor the QSO. They are both 10-over or more signal strength. I figure they should hear me just fine, so I monitor longer. Then, when opportunity arises, I throw out my callsign. Nothing. They go on like I'm not there. I try again and again. Eventually, I tune up the amp and try again at full legal limit. One of them says he thinks he hears someone but cannot make it out. The other logs on to the KFS web receiver to see if he can hear me. Both ops say they have 20-over noise levels and both are using amps, just to QSO! The guy listening to the web SDR receiver repeats my call correctly and the says the other guy can't hear me and doesn't have access the web SDR, so thanks and bye. THAT is what ham radio is today. I can hear both of them armchair copy, but because they both have super high noise floor, they can't hear me, even with legal limit amp. So, no QSO unless we are both what?, 40-over to each other?
Part 22 is limited to a few milliwatts ERP. As we move forward, fewer and fewer ops will be able to copy them. So, let's say 10 years from now, will ANYONE be able to copy? I have many doubts.
So I think the hobby missed the opportunity to convince the FCC to protect the spectrum, and fewer people are getting in than are dying off or losing interest. Myself included.
I still have a VHF/UHF ham radio in my work truck, and one in the shop at home. If I play radio at all anymore (very rarely), it's on 146.520 FM simplex. That's it. My home base is still all set up (4 towers, 8 large antennas, wires, etc.) and will probably remain mostly up for the sake of keeping my reputation as a "prepper". But I don't go turning it on anymore when I have some free time. There are other things I want to do than not be heard by stations I can hear just fine.
I need to make t-shirts that say "40-over is the new S-1". Yea, but the potential pool of buyers is already too small, and getting smaller.
Thanks!
Paul K6FRC